SMM Mn Survey: 50% EMM Producers Believe EMM Prices to Flat in the Medium Term and to Rise in the Long Term

SHANGHAI, Apr. 1 (SMM) -- Mainstream offers of EMM were in the RMB 15,200-15,400/mt range. Prices increases of nickel and other relating raw materials spurred the long position sentiment of EMM prices.
SMM conducted a survey with regard to future EMM market outlook at 10 EMM producers. (Sample: 10 companies, including 4 companies with capacity between 30-40 kt/yr range, 5 companies with capacity between 10-20 kt/yr range and 1 company with 10 kt/yr capacity)

30% produces believe that EMM prices will continue to rise in the future, which is mainly caused by strong support from high costs at EMM producers as prices of ore powder and sulfuric acid still hover at high level. Current tight supply of ore powder also lead to insufficient output at some EMM producers. Although market condition is still sluggish at downstream stainless steel mills, downstream producers still have purchasing interest as operating rates at large stainless steel mills are still above 80%. Meanwhile, nickel price hikes and price increases of other raw material continue to spur long position sentiment of EMM prices. In this context, EMM prices will continue to move further in the RMB 15,800-16,000/mt range.

50% EMM producers believe that EMM prices will remain flat. Costs still supports EMM prices at present and supply of EMM is not too much in the market, while sluggish situation in the stainless steel market will not likely to change in the short term. In this context, EMM prices will stagnate between RMB 15,800-16,000/mt. However, from current commodity price trend, EMM prices are expected to rise in the long term, and EMM prices shall still have room to rise further in the future.

20% EMM producers believe that EMM prices will decline in the future. This round of price increases is mainly caused by goods news from neighboring market, and fundamentals of EMM haven't change at all. In addition, electricity prices may be adjusted lower in the mid-April or late April, which will exert negative impact on EMM prices. However, any falling room for EMM prices will be limited and prices will stay stable at RMB 15,200/mt temporarily as costs shall still support EMM prices.

To contact the writer on this report: jianghanmei@smm.cn


 
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