问君能有几多愁?谨慎多头 锰矿上头

来源:SMM

本周进口锰矿市场本处于高位稳定状态,因周五4月10日凌晨两点南非总统要求延长14封锁而打破,锰矿贸易商纷纷封盘,合金价格却在周四落定的低价钢招中略显踌躇。

消息传开后,全国锰矿市场基本处于封盘状态,封盘后以待下周涨价的情绪十分明显,极个别报价更是高价频出甚是混乱,今日澳块45.5%最高报价达到60-70元/吨度,碳酸锰矿烧结矿报60元/吨度,试探性的报价体现出极其强烈的涨价决心,但市场并未做出有效成交。

据SMM测算,自3月26日南非实施封禁至5月1日,南非锰矿对华供应影响量约110-115万吨(剔除:消息称南非已集港锰矿期间可发船,约4-5船,对华装运量最大可弥补约20万吨),即:中国一个月南非锰矿进口量,已40天船期计算,南非锰矿中国境内实际供应缺口将在5月中旬体现。

值得警惕的是,目前众多矿山(不仅仅是锰矿)试图向南非政府进行交涉,以恢复一部分矿产作业及运输。同时,南非矿产理事会明确指示4月16日后矿产业再封锁后的操作,指出将根据世界卫生组织(WHO)协议对员工的健康状况进行评估后恢复员工就业,采矿作业将根据作业的性质(地面作业或地下作业),员工的可用性(取决于从邻国解除的旅行限制),适当的重启程序(类似于之后的工作程序)适当扩大任何长时间的停业)以及该流行病在南非的传播性质。

SMM认为南非政府十分重视疫情控制,将疫情防控作为第一优先级,但后续封锁存在限制放松的可能性,矿业出口作为该国最重要经济来源之一,长时间完全封锁不利于国家经济安全与稳定。

附:南非矿产委员会声明原文:

 MINERALS COUNCIL POSITION ON THE RESUMPTION OF MINING OPERATIONS

The Minerals Council South Africa notes articles in the media regarding the resumption of mining operations after 16 April. The Minerals Council notes the following:

The Minerals Council and its members have been fully supportive of the current lock-down, with the bulk of industry operations having been shut down. Any exemptions have been granted on the basis of directives to continue operations (for example, coal operations supplying Eskom and the synfuel industry), certain strategic exports, smelters and refineries and limited surface operations, and care-and-maintenance activities. All exemptions have been sanctioned by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) under operating principles that are focussed on employee health as the priority.

The Minerals Council has been engaging with the DMRE and unions in recent days to establish a way forward on how to work safely under the constraints of COVID-19. The disease is likely to be with us for some months yet, with some experts indicating a likely peak in June this year.

It is certainly the industry’s hope that the lock-down, which has come at great expense and sacrifice to so many South Africans, has indeed had the effect of flattening the curve. Certainly, initial indications are that it has done so, and at the very least it will give the country and companies time to put in place improved measures to proceed under our new reality.

When we do resume operations as an industry, it will not be business as usual.

But it is premature to comment on when such a resumption may be. This will depend on decisions that government as a whole will take on the approach following the end of the current lockdown period, and it will be within a holistic view of the entire economy. The mining sector will continue to abide by and support the positions taken by government in this regard.

2

When operations do resume, the industry will be well-placed to enter into this new phase of operating in a COVID-19 constrained environment.

Our approach to dealing with COVID-19 before the lock-down was risk-based, and it would continue to be so.

Employee health will be assessed at the resumption of operations in line with World Health Organization (WHO) protocols, including assessment of possible symptoms, travel history and recent contacts. Proper social distancing and face covers in some circumstances would be adhered to during this time.

Similarly, mining operations would scale up appropriately depending on the nature of the operation (surface or underground), the availability of employees (depending on travel restrictions being lifted from neigbouring countries), appropriate restart procedures (similar to those that would have been undertaken after any extended shut-down) and the nature of the spread of the epidemic in South Africa. The priority for all operations will be to:

• equip employees with the knowledge and means to be able to protect themselves and their families;

• to put in place the systems and standard operating procedures that apply best practice knowledge on hygiene and social distancing;

• to screen and detect employees who are ill, and provide for quarantine facilities where this is necessary;

• to provide medical care for employees, and where possible, for families and communities as well.

The Minerals Council has developed standard operating procedures for the return to work and for measures at work. These are aligned with the guidance and stipulations of WHO, the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD), the Department of Health and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy.

In conclusion, the industry’s approach remains an integrated holistic approach that recognises that fighting this disease is a national and industry imperative. We recognise and take pride in the industry’s role as a significant contributor to the economy, and we will seek to make our contribution as best we can in the new reality

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